01 · Scope
Two regional systems, one controlled analytical architecture.
Arkworth Balance covers 29 European markets, comprising the EU27, the United Kingdom and Norway, alongside the U.S. federal system and all 50 states. Europe and the United States are treated as separate legal, physical and compliance systems.
National transport implementation, directly applicable aviation and maritime layers, registries, tickets, penalties, official physical releases, product S&D and feedstock availability.
Federal RFS, RIN mechanics, state clean-fuel and incentive programmes, official federal and state data, product production and demand, and feedstock processing demand.
02 · Monitoring
Rolling source monitoring, material client updates.
Official authorities, regulators, parliaments, scheme administrators, statistical agencies, registries and programme calendars are monitored across the covered universe. A source event is not automatically a model event.
Material policy, registry or physical-market evidence can trigger an interim client update. The S&D model changes when the evidence changes the operating position, not simply because a new publication exists.
03 · Evidence hierarchy
Primary evidence leads. Commentary cannot silently replace it.
Primary legislation, implementing regulation, regulator decisions, scheme rules, registry records and official statistical releases.
Government trajectories, consultations, bills and plans that are relevant but not equivalent to enacted law.
Published physical volume, capacity, production, consumption, credit, certificate, registry and compliance data.
Demand, supply, production, feedstock and balance assumptions that are clearly labelled as modelled rather than observed.
Client-facing pages name authorities, schemes, legal instruments and publication families. Exact URLs, report identifiers, legal locators, source routes, extraction instructions and revision archives remain protected within the internal research system.
04 · Status taxonomy
The legal or evidential status stays attached to the number.
Arkworth Balance distinguishes enacted, operational, staged, pending, framework-gap and separate-regime positions. Physical data are also labelled final, provisional, revised, observed or unavailable. A precise number does not erase an uncertain legal basis.
05 · Physical data
Source-native first, normalised only where useful.
Official data retain their original unit and release status. Volume, energy, credits, certificates, compliance percentages and model equivalents are not silently combined. Where a normalised unit is used for cross-market comparison, it is identified as an analytical allocation rather than direct official data.
- Publication date, reference period and revision status remain separate.
- Production, capacity, consumption, exports, stocks and compliance accounting are treated as different variables.
- Withheld or unavailable official values remain withheld or unavailable rather than inferred without a stated method.
06 · Biofuel and feedstock S&D
Ranges, scenarios and invalidation conditions, not one asserted line.
European and U.S. models are built separately. Product demand, supply or production and feedstock availability each retain their own drivers. Low, central and high cases are scenario paths, not statistical confidence intervals unless explicitly stated otherwise.
Mandates, GHG-intensity paths, modal obligations, fuel-pool change, compliance economics and substitution.
Operable capacity, utilisation, commissioning, feedstock availability, imports, exports, stocks and economics.
Eligibility, evidence tier, chain of custody, competing uses and the difference between nominal and usable supply.
Available supply or production less demand, with the clearing mechanisms and model limitations kept visible.
07 · Change governance
Every material update has a reason and a next control.
The controlled change ledger records the previous position, the new evidence, current position, model impact, unchanged assumptions, unresolved follow-ups and the next event capable of changing the view.
- A new source can change the client narrative without changing the model.
- A model change must be traceable to a changed assumption or observation.
- Open evidence gaps remain visible rather than being filled with unlabelled judgement.
- Priority Desk ranking reflects market impact, legal downside, update cadence and model sensitivity.
08 · Service limits
What Arkworth Balance is, and what it is not.
Arkworth Balance is a biofuels market-intelligence and analytical decision-support platform. It is not a legal opinion, compliance sign-off, investment recommendation, trading instruction, tax opinion or proprietary daily price assessment.
Binding law, scheme rules, regulator decisions, a client’s own advisers and the client’s execution and risk systems remain controlling.