Biofuels market intelligence · Europe + United States

See the mandate.Read the balance.Know what changes next.

Name: Arkworth Balance
Brand: Arkworth Partners

Arkworth Balance tracks mandates and the physical evidence behind biofuel demand. The current edition records the UK’s fifth-provisional RTFO and SAF releases, Norway’s June deliveries, EPA’s June RIN files and new operating dates in Italy, the Netherlands and Ireland.

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For compliance, trading, production, procurement and research teams.

Privacy-safe blurred preview of the Arkworth Balance Europe and United States biofuels dashboard

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29 European marketsPolicy, physical and feedstock coverage.

Federal + 50 statesU.S. RFS and state-level intelligence.

MonthlyClient edition and change ledger.

306Monitored source records.

Multiple modelsSupply and demand scenarios.

Mandate monitoringEurope, U.S. federal and state.

The monthly edition, in public

The 27 July edition logged 11 client-visible changes after 306 monitored source records were reviewed. Each entry shows the previous position, current evidence, market implication and any open extraction control.

Published monthlySource register reviewedFollow-ups visible

Monthly serviceCHANGE LEDGER

Inside the latest ledger

The UK’s fifth-provisional RTFO and SAF statistics were published on 23 July. Norway’s pure-liquid biofuel deliveries moved from 15 million litres in May to 12 million litres in June. EPA’s June RIN generation and available-RIN files are logged for controlled capture.

The latest file is not always the latest model input

Germany’s April BAFA publication is verified, but March remains the latest fully parsed product month until extraction and reconciliation are complete.

Read the release-control methodology

What sits inside the platform?

Monthly edition and Priority Desk

The Netherlands REV launch is delayed to no later than 14 August; Italy’s next official CIC session is 6 August; Ireland’s Q2 certificate deadline is 1 September.

Monthly starting point

Demand, supply and balance

Multiple supply and demand models cover products, feedstocks and jurisdictions through 2030. Central, lower and higher cases remain separate from direct observations.

Europe + United States

Feedstock pressure

Sweden’s May HVO, FAME and ethanol table sits beside feedstock eligibility, regional availability and route constraints.

Procurement + margin context

Policy and compliance

Ireland’s 2026 position carries a 32% overall obligation, a 5% advanced/RFNBO floor and a 3% crop cap.

Rules and obligations

29 markets, federal and 50 states

Spain’s monthly biofuel series runs through May with January and March corrections; Portugal’s preliminary fuel-demand context runs through June.

Jurisdiction coverage

See the product

Detailed figures, market signals and source-level text are blurred.

Public preview
The working structure remains visible. Subscriber intelligence stays inside the platform.

Blurred Arkworth Balance monthly edition overview

Monthly client edition

The opening page shows 11 current changes, three controlled follow-ups and the unchanged-model control.

From publication to desk decision

One official release can change the operating view without changing the annual model. The July cycle added new UK, Nordic, Spanish, Portuguese and U.S. evidence while the audited headline forecasts remained unchanged.

Detect → understand → decide → defend.

ComplianceTradingProcurementResearchLeadership

Publication

Official files enter the ledger

EPA’s June RIN files and Sweden’s May HVO, FAME and ethanol table entered with their official status.

Control

Incomplete extraction remains visible

Germany’s April BAFA file is verified; March remains the latest parsed direct month until the table clears reconciliation.

Desk use

The desk sees the market fact

Norway’s June deliveries are shown at 12 million litres, split equally between dutiable and duty-free diesel.

Teams and decisions

Compliance · tickets · regulatory affairs

What changed in the obligation, cap or ticket system?

Track the Netherlands REV delay, Ireland’s 1 September certificate deadline and enacted or pending mandate changes.

Trading · broking · production

Does the evidence change the physical balance?

Read Spain through May, Portugal through June and Norway’s May-to-June movement against the annual balance.

Feedstock procurement · strategy

Where could feedstock pressure tighten?

Use Sweden’s HVO, FAME and ethanol series with eligibility rules and scenario demand.

Research · leadership · client teams

What needs to be explained now?

Brief a client or management team on the UK provisional release, its status and the open extraction control.

Methodology, in public

EPA’s June RIN files can enter the release ledger before a quantity enters a model. The public note explains why Germany’s April BAFA table remains an open control and why unchanged forecasts are recorded.

Unchecked values stay outWhen a quantity has not completed archive, reconciliation and review, it remains a follow-up item.

Arkworth Balance public methodology · version 1.0Source hierarchy, status labels, model controls and revisions

Read the methodology note

Independent · Analyst-led

Arkworth Partners

Experience from collection to market balance

Feedstock collection & originationBiofuel productionPhysical tradingSupply & demand modelling

Across the full biofuels chain

Arkworth Balance is built on experience across feedstock collection and origination, biofuel production, physical trading, compliance markets, policy analysis and supply-and-demand modelling.

That breadth connects mandates to feedstock availability, production constraints, traded flows and the resulting market balance.

Questions before a walkthrough

What is Arkworth Balance?

A browser-based biofuels intelligence platform with multiple supply and demand models, mandate monitoring, physical series, feedstock analysis, jurisdiction profiles, ranked signals and official release calendars for Europe and the United States.

How current is the service?

Arkworth Balance is published monthly. The current edition logged 11 changes after 306 monitored source records were reviewed.

Which markets does it cover?

Twenty-nine European markets, the U.S. federal Renewable Fuel Standard and all 50 state profiles. Product, feedstock and jurisdiction outlooks run through 2030.

Is this a live price terminal?

No. Arkworth Balance covers mandates, physical balances, feedstock pressure, compliance mechanics and release intelligence. It sits beside a team’s price, execution and risk tools.

Can we review the methodology first?

Yes. The public note shows how UK provisional statistics, EPA RIN files and Germany BAFA data are treated before a model changes.

Arrange a product walkthrough

Tell us the markets and decisions you cover. We will show the relevant parts of Arkworth Balance and discuss subscription scope.